The Morning After: Is the Obama campaign incompetent or masochistic?

I watched the Texas and Ohio return all night and I could not believe that Sen. Hillary Clinton managed to defy the pundits again. According to CNN and NBC News, Sen. Barack Obama had three golden opportunities to shut down the Clinton machine once and for all - first New Hampshire, then California and now Texas. In each and every case, it came down to either the women's vote or the Latino vote that keep the Clinton machine barely alive. The women's vote saved Hillary in New Hampshire, the then Latino vote saved California and now the combined women's and Latino vote saved Texas. The Obama campaign would like the world to believe that in a few weeks they had almost erased Clinton's near 20 percentage point advantage and 30 years history in Texas. It is be incredible that the eventual nominee could end up loosing America's five or six most populous states, namely California, Texas, New York, Florida, Ohio and Michigan, in the primaries, however barely that defeat was. Granted that the Democratic National Committee had stripped Florida and Michigan, it now frankly really looks the Obama campaign suffers from a case of incompetence or a masochistic streak.

I am seriously beginning to wonder how many more must-win cases can the Clinton machine keep pulling out? In tennis, what the Clintons have achieved is like saving three, perhaps four, match points and the tennis match just refuses to come to an end. The Democratic electorate, the political scientists and pundits are actually getting an election of a lifetime watching these two candidates keep going. This is really history in the making. After Super Tuesday on 5th February, everyone agrees that the longer this drags on, the better are Obama's chances. At some point, someone has to realize that it is more than mere luck that is saving the Clinton machine. If someone told me after Super Tuesday, that Clinton could pull out Ohio and Texas after loosing 11 straight contests, I simply would believe it. Like the 1999 Ryder Cup matches, this is living up to the hype and seemingly manages to deliver much more than the hype is promising.

The only saving grace for the Obama campaign is that he still has a lead in the elected delegates. The bad news is that the Clinton campaign has rather successfully managed to define expectations for the Obama campaign by saying that Obama needs to win all four primaries last night otherwise, it would be proof that the Democratic electorate has a case of buyer’s remorse. The Obama campaign should have upped the stakes by saying that the loss of either Ohio or Texas would be a mortal blow to the Clinton camp; instead it played right into the Clinton expectation game. Fortunately, Obama has one more chance to try to end Hillary's presidential bid by winning Pennsylvania. This time, he really should try to define the expectations for the pundits by putting out numbers she needs.

More than once, with the open primaries like in Texas, I am beginning to believe that some Republicans are actually helping Hillary by voting for her in the primary with the intent of aligning the independents and the conservatives against her in November. Think about this, the Republicans have been screaming for the Democrats to nominate Hillary because they believe that Sen. John McCain, the now definitive Republican nominee, will have a better chance in November against Hillary. And I agree. Furthermore, no one needs Hillary to win the Democratic nomination more than McCain, given his current funding raising numbers. From what I have heard so far, Obama's fundraising is a steamroller. In February only, he has raised something like $50 million compared to Hillary's $35 million and McCain's $7 million. If Hillary is the nominee, the Republican and McCain strategy is simply to raise Hillary's negatives in a similar fashion to what then Pres. Bill Clinton did to Sen. Bob Dole in 1996. This should be fairly straight forward, as Hillary has to battle her in the remaining states to catch up to Obama's delegates and wage the floor fight in Denver before turning her attention to McCain. The hope is that between now and November, McCain would have so successfully defined Hillary so far to the left that she cannot climb out of.

Right now, assuming that Hillary by some miraculous fate manages to take the nomination, McCain's national security resume is far more impressive than Hillary's. McCain's support of NAFTA will only cost him the core Democratic votes like the blue collar worker from the manufacturing sector in Ohio. More importantly, Hillary's negative attacks on Obama may well alienate Obama's younger and more highly educated supporters. Furthermore, more of Obama's suppoerters consider themselves as independents; they may end up switching camp wholesale to backing McCain. Together, one must think that Hillary's bid is still alive for some reason, other than Hillary's explanation of buyer's remorse.

There can only be so many theories that could explain why Hillary's hope is still alive right now. And I am out for now.