Monday, February 11, 2008

Dream ticket - it could backfire

There is way too much speculation concerning a dream ticket for the Democrats with the looser being the vice presidential nominee. In fact, it is utterly unviable when one put any serious thought into it. My personal experience has been it does not lived up to the hype. Many years ago, as a secondary school student heavily involved in the Model UN in Hong Kong, I know teachers who talked about the dream team for a certain conference. It was the conference that catapulted me and a very good friend then overnight from a novice to the next big thing. Teachers I knew then asked me after the conference whether the conference in question have been a greater success if my friend and I were teamed together. The answer is no, absolutely not. In fact, being teamed together damn near destroyed the friendship.

So much for personal experience. Hillary Clinton would make a great running mate in theory. This is the first realistic chance to see a woman take the Vice President's oath of office. Furthermore, after serving eight years as Vice President, she would only be 68. She would still be younger than John McCain, the Republican presumptive nominee, and Bob Dole, Republican nominee in 1996, when they ran for President. At that time, she can further validate her claim of Washington experience with the resume to prove it. If she is elected, she would still be younger than Ronald Reagan when he was inaugurated. Reagan turned 70 two to three weeks after inauguration. As for Obama, it would also be a historic moment.

The real reason why the looser should not become the running mate is because there is too much ego from the Clintons. If Sen. Barack Obama wins the nomination, it would be almost akin to Gerald Ford being Ronald Reagan's vice president. The idea failed because Ford, as former President, demanded a greater role in the Administration than most Vice Presidents would normally get. In the case of Hillary Clinton being Vice President, the problem is what role, if any, would Bill Clinton, as former President, play in this Administration. Assuming Hillary Clinton accepts the vice presidential slot and wins in November, Bill Clinton in all probability would be advising Hillary behind the scenes with Hillary telling Obama what he should do. I doubt it would be in public, but most likely in Cabinet meetings thereby undermining Obama's authority. No president in his or her right mind would accept a Vice President dictating his policies. The egos of the Clintons would probably doom the enterprise in a matter of months.

Reagan entertained the idea briefly in 1980. Both Reagan and Ford knew it would not work. Reagan did not want his authority especially in foreign policy undercut by a former president. Ford would not and, probably, should not accept a job that did not respect his status as a former President. Ford knew it would never work.

As for a Clinton Obama ticket, what would be Obama's role in that case? I seriously did not see Obama having anything to do in the West Wing. Obama's role would be comparable to that of John Garner or Henry Wallace during Franklin Roosevelt's presidency. In fact, one commentator said that Garner and Wallace were just there just in case. President Hillary Clinton, assuming she wins the White House, Bill Clinton would be the principal adviser behind the scenes. As former President, he knows the job inside and out. I think the Clintons have no interest whatsoever in grooming the Vice President for the job. Hypothetically Hillary Clinton serves two terms and Vice President Obama runs, the biggest question would then be what has Obama done as Vice President? The only real answer is nothing apart from presiding over the Senate and showing up on Sunday morning talk shows pushing the Administration's policies. Come to think about it, Hillary could just send Bill to talk to Wolf Blitzer, Tim Russert and all those Sunday morning talk shows.

Apart from George Herbert Walker Bush, or Bush the Elder, the previous incumbent Vice President to successfully run for President was Martin Van Buren in 1836. Since then, every other incumbent Vice President who ran namely Richard Nixon in 1960 and Al Gore in 2000 failed. Since Herbert Hoover's election in 1928, there has been five governors or former governors, three incumbents namely Truman, Johnson and Ford; one general, Eisenhower; one senator, Kennedy and one former Vice President, Richard Nixon and one incumbent Vice President namely Bush the Elder. The last time a Senator with significant Washington experience to become President was John F. Kennedy in 1960. He served 6 years as a Congressman before serving another 8 years as Senator. Americans generally do not like Washington insiders running the country. If history is any guide, it does not bode well for Obama to take the Vice Presidential slot.

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