The Clinton firewall - Here we go again Part 3
I have long wondered does anyone ever learn from someone else's mistakes. As we all know, former President Bill Clinton has stated that Sen. Hillary Clinton needs to win Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania in order stay in the race and blunt the Obama juggernaut. Since Super Tuesday, Hillary has lost eleven straight contests. Super delegates are either defecting to the Obama camp or backing Obama. Earlier this week, former Presidential candidate Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut announced his endorsement for Obama. A few days later, Democratic Congressman John Lewis of Georgia, a staunch Clinton supporter, announced that he would be voting for Obama in the national convention because, according him, his district voted 3 to 1 for Obama. The truth is that another prominent African American from Lewis' district and an Obama backer is considering challenging Lewis for his Congressional seat. In fact, Lewis knew that Obama carried his district by an overwhelming margin, but he did not choose to endorse Obama until he discovered that he might be facing a challenger for his Party's nomination. This is just political expediency at work.
The real question right now is whether Sen. Clinton has learned anything from the Romney and Giuliani campaigns. Both former Massachusetts governor and New York mayor made heavy bets on winning certain states to stay in contention. Rudi Giuliani made his first and last stand in Florida. Even before Florida hold its primary, everyone I know and talked to argued that Giuliani did not stand a chance in Florida after McCain won both New Hampshire and South Carolina. McCain, at that time, won two of the four primaries with Mike Huckabee winning Iowa and Romney in Michigan. That is part one. Mitt Romney staked everything on California after winning only Michigan and Wyoming. Romney is part two of campaign firewall and must win states. Both men lost and then endorsed Sen. John McCain. I mean doesn't anyone realize that staking your presidential hopes on winning one state is stupid, but less two states. Hillary now believes that she can do what Romney and Giuliani failed by winning Ohio and Texas.
As I have previously stated in the earlier entry that Hillary really should consider conceding before being humiliated at the polls. On Sun. 24 February edition of NBC's Meet the Press, NBC's political director crunched the numbers and it is sobering. In order for Hillary to stand a chance of catching up to Obama's pledged delegates, she needs to win over 65% in both Ohio and Texas primaries. The polls currently show Clinton holding a slight lead in Ohio and tied to loosing the Texas primary. Just to complicate Hillary's mathematics, Texas is the two-step state. Two thirds of the delegates will be decided in the primary and the remainder in caucus on 4th March. Given the strength of the ability of Obama ground game to win delegates in caucuses, Hillary has a damn near mission impossible. In other words, in order for Hillary to win Texas, she needs over 70% in the primary just to overset the Obama ground game.
While Dodd made his endorsement, I saw a wave of articles calling for Hillary to quit. The Washington Post's Eugene Robinson wrote last Friday a piece entitled If Obama 0 for 10 saying that if Obama had lost ten straight wouldn't Democrats of all stripes be calling on him to quit. Earlier this week, Newsweek had a similar piece saying that it is time to pack up. In case, their arguments were not strong enough. These two weeks alone, Hillary was completely indecisive on her campaign posture. In the Texas debate on Thursday, Hillary seemed fairly conciliatory in her closing remarks towards Obama. Two days, she attacked Obama's mailing by calling them tactics out of Karl Rove's playbook. Now she is flip flopping on her position regarding NAFTA. Now, the world hardly sees Bill Clinton on the campaign trail stumping for her. What is going on? Has Bill Clinton learned that he has lost the edge in giving stump speeches? Or has the Clinton campaign figured out that he is doing her more harm than good?
Frankly, the question is how much more pressure or how many more losses it takes before Hillary learns that it is all but over. With two must-win states on Tues. 4th March, one must think it is going to be nearly impossible for her to pull it off unless she knows something the rest of us do not.